Read-only research replay

Pricing uncertainty, not pretending it away.

A reproducible view of a Rust pricing, calibration, risk, and paper-fill simulation system for BTC five-minute prediction markets.

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Ledger rows—

Distinct windows—

Forecast models—

Window-level strategy evidence

Mode / strategy	Windows	Total P&L	Mean / window	Bootstrap 95% CI	Max drawdown

Generated from versioned shadow-run artifacts. Rebuild with python3 scripts/analyze_shadow_strategy.py --data fixtures/shadow-ledger-v1 --json demo/summary.json.